SEAHAWKS THIS WEEKEND’S NFL WILD-CARD “BEST BET"

BCS TITLE GAME PREDICTION: ALABAMA 24, NOTRE DAME 13

NUMBERS SAY BILLS’ 6-10 RECORD WAS WHAT THEY DESERVED

OLNEY RANKS ANGELS LINEUP NO. 1…YANKEES 10TH

Would anyone be shocked if the underdogs win all four of this weekend’s four NFL wild-card games?

I wouldn’t be shocked but I’d be very surprised. I’m picking three favorites. My only winning underdog is Cincinnati over Houston.

Here are my picks (home team in CAPS):

The Seattle Seahawks are the only road favorite this weekend and they’re my “Best Bet” (4 p.m. Sunday): Seattle 27, WASHINGTON 20 (+3; over/under 46 points).

Seattle has won five straight games by a combined 193-60. The Seahawks have an extremely athletic defense, a top-shelf, all-weather running back in Marshawn Lynch and a mobile star quarterback in Russell Wilson.  They’re as healthy as any team entering the playoffs,
The Redskins have had an amazing season but rookie QB Robert Griffin III is coming off a knee injury and wasn’t 100 percent in last week’s big win over Dallas.

The Seahawks were the only undefeated team at home this season. They were only 3-5 on the road. But they’re on a roll and the Redskins aren’t likely to cool them off Sunday afternoon.

Cincinnati 24, HOUSTON (-4 ½; over/under 46 points) 20 – These teams went in opposite directions down the stretch. The Bengals were 3-5 straight up and 2-5-1 against the spread midway through the season. In the second half of the season, they were 7-1 SU and ATS.

The Texans were 11-1 SU and 8-4 ATS through 12 games but only 1-3 SU and ATS in the last four games. QB Matt Schaub has to prove he can win a big game and I think he’ll flunk this test Saturday against one of the NFL’s most underrated defenses.

BALTIMORE (-6 ½; over/under 46 ½ points) 28, Indianapolis 17 – The most impressive thing about the Colts is their 11-5 record, but they were outscored by 30 points (387-357) and I believe that is a more accurate reflect ion of their overall talent.

This isn’t a great Baltimore team but I’m counting on the return and at least a brief appearance by Ray Lewis will provide an emotional boost. And I have a hunch inconsistent QB Joe Flacco will come through in a showdown Sunday afternoon against rookie QB Andrew Luck.

GREEN BAY (- 7 ½; over/under 46 points) 33, Minnesota  17 – The Vikings upset the visiting Packers 37-34 last week – all the more reason to think Green Bay will bounce back at home. The Packers aren’t likely to hold Adrian Peterson under 130 yards rushing, but Minnesota QB Christian Ponder isn’t likely to play as well Saturday night as he did last week.

The Packers will be as healthy as they’ve been all season and Aaron Rodgers vs. Ponder is a complete QB mismatch.

Here’s how the eight wild-card teams fared this season in assorted important stats (ranking among the 32 teams in parentheses):

Total offense – Houston 372.1 (7)…Washington 383.2 (5)…Indianapolis 362.4 (10)…Green Bay 359.4 (13)…Baltimore 325.5 (16)…Seattle 350.6 (17)…Minnesota 336.6 (20)…Cincinnati 332.7 (22)

Total defense – Seattle 306.2 (4)…Cincinnati 319.7 (6)…Houston 232.3 (7)…Green Bay 336.8 (11)…Minnesota 350.0 (16)…Baltimore 350.9 (17)…Indianapolis 374.3 (26)…Washington 377.7 (28)

Scoring offense – Washington 27.3 (4)…Green Bay 27.1 (5)…Houston 26.0 (8)…Seattle 25.8 (9)…Baltimore 24.9 (10)…Cincinnati 24.4 (12)…Minnesota 23.7 (14)…Indianapolis 22.3 (t18)

Rushing yards per game – Washington 169.3 (1)…Minnesota 164.6 (2)…Seattle 161.2 (3)…Houston 132.7 (8)…Baltimore 118.8 (11)…Cincinnati 109.1 (18)…Green Bay 106.4 (20)…Indianapolis 104.4 (22)

Passing Yards per game – Indianapolis 258.0 (7)…Green Bay 253.1 (9)…Houston 239.4 (11)…Baltimore 233.7 (15)…Cincinnati 223.6 (17)…

Washington 213.9 (20)…Seattle 189.4 (27)…Minnesota 171.9 (31)
Scoring defense – Seattle 15.3 (1)…Cincinnati 20.0 (8)…Houston 20.7 (t9th)…Green Bay 21.0 (11)…Baltimore 21.5 (t12th)….Minnesota 21.8 (t14)…Indianapolis24.2 (21)…Washington 24.3 (22)

Most sacks by – Cincinnati 51 (3)…Green Bay 47 (4)…Houston 44 (t5)…Minnesota 44 (t5)…Baltimore 37 (t15)…Seattle 36 (t18)…Indianapolis 32 (t23)…Washington 32 (t23)

Fewest sacks allowed – Houston 28 (t7)…Minnesota 32 (11)…Seattle 33 (t12)…Washington 33 (t12)…Baltimore 38 (20)…Indianapolis 41 (t23)…Cincinnati 46 (26)…Green Bay 51 (31)

Turnover differential – Washington +17…Seattle +13…Houston +12…Baltimore +9…Green Bay +7…Cincinnati +4…Minnesota -1…Indianapolis -12 (only 15 takeaways)

Fewest penalties – Minnesota 90 (5( for 830 yards (12)…Cincinnati 99 (12) for 857 yards (t17)…Denver 100 (13) for 805 yards (8)…Green Bay 103 (t18th) for 923 yards (23)…Houston 108 (t24) for 873 yards (20)…Seattle 110 (27) for 890 yards (21)…Washington 116 (29) for 985 yards (30)…Baltimore 121 (31) for 1127 yards (32)

ALABAMA’S ADVANTAGE ON OFFENSE SHOULD BE THE DIFFERENCE

Monday night’s Notre Dame vs. Alabama BCS Championship game figures to be relatively low-scoring affair. Both teams have extremely stingy defenses. Alabama appears to have the edge on offense, particularly in cashing in on scoring chances.

 Here’s how the two powerhouse teams measure up (rank among the 120 Bowl Subdivision teams in parentheses):

Record – Alabama 12-1…Notre Dame 12-0

Total offense – Alabama 439.08 (39)…Notre Dame 421.33 (49)

Rush offense – Alabama 224.62 (19)…Notre Dame 202.50 (29)

Pass offense – Alabama 214.46 (81)…Notre Dame 218.83 (76)

Scoring offense – Alabama 38.46 (14)…Notre Dame 26.75 (74)

Total defense – Alabama 246.00 (1)…Notre Dame 286.83 (6)

Rush defense – Alabama 79.77 (1)…Notre Dame 92.42 (4)

Pass defense – Alabama 166.23 (4)…Notre Dame 194.42 (21)

Scoring defense – Alabama 10.69 (2)…Notre Dame 10.33 (1)

Net punting – Alabama 39.17 (23)…Notre Dame 38.21 (37)

Net punting – Alabama 39.17 (23)…Notre Dame 38.21 (37)

Punt returns – Alabama 10.18 (40)…Notre Dame 2.44 (115)

Kickoff returns – Alabama 24.84 (12)…Notre Dame 20.04 (83)

Turnover margin/game -- Alabama +1.00 (13)…Notre Dame +.75 (21)

Sacks by/game – Alabama 2.54 (26)…Notre Dame +2.83 (15)

Fewest sacks allowed/game – Alabama 1.77 (51)…Notre Dame 1.33 (28)

Tackles for loss/game – Alabama 6.23 (t41)…Notre Dame 5.58 (70)

Fewest turnovers lost – Alabama  15 (t17)…Notre Dame 14 (t14)

Time of possession – Alabama 31:49 (23)…Notre Dame 32:34 (10)

Fewest penalties/game – Alabama 3.85 (6)…Notre Dame 5.67 (t52)

Fewest penalty yards/game – Alabama 32.85 (7)…Notre Dame 42.92 (32)

Red zone offense – Alabama 57 drives, 51 scores (41 TDs, 10 FGs), 89 percent (15)…Notre Dame 58 drives, 46 scores (27 TDs, 19 FGs), 79 percent (t74)

Red zone defense – Alabama 27 drives, 17 scores (14 TDs, 3 FGs), .63 (1)…Notre Dame 33 drives, 21 scores…Notre Dame 33 drives, 21 scores (8 TDs, 13 FGs), .64 (t2).

The prediction – The defenses are a wash. Alabama gets the edge on offense, particularly in the red zone…Alabama 24, Notre Dame 13.

STATS SAY BILLS 6-10 RECORD WAS JUST ABOUT RIGHT

Here’s how the Buffalo Bills measured up against opponents this season:

Record – Bills 6-10…opponents 10-6

Points – Bills 344…opponents 435

Point differential…Bills -91

Total yards offense – Bills 5486…opponents 5860

Yards per game – Bills 342.9…opponents 362.9

First downs – Bills 301…opponents 349

Average yards per offensive play – Bills 5.58...opponents 5.57

Average yards per rush – Bills 5.0…opponents 5.0

Average yards per pass play – Bills 6.40…opponents 6.48

Rushing TDs -- Bills 12…opponents 23

Passing TDs—Bills 24…opponents 25

Total rushing plays – Bills 442…opponents 470

Total passing plays – Bills 511…opponents 536

Penalties/ yards – Bills 104/871…opponents 80/693

Fumbles/lost – Bills 23/17…opponents 26/9

Interceptions thrown – Bills 17…opponents 12

Sacks by – Bills 36…opponents 30

1st quarter scoring – Bills 84…opponents 89

2nd quarter scoring – Bills 109…opponents 115

3rd quarter scoring – Bills 80…opponents 109

4th quarter scoring – Bills 70…opponents 122

Overtime scoring – Bills 3…opponents 0.

OLNEY RATES THE LINEUPS: ANGELS NO. 1; YANKEES 10TH

 ESPN.com’s Buster Olney this week ranked baseball’s top 10 lineups for the 2013 season. There are some surprises:

1-Los Angeles Angels

2-Milwaukee Brewers

3-St. Louis Cardinals

4-Texas Rangers

5-Washington Nationals

6-Boston Red Sox

7-Colorado Rockies

8-Toronto Blue Jays

9-Cincinnati Reds

10-New York Yankees.

Best of the Rest – Oakland…Arizona…Detroit

What do you think?

I believe he grossly undersestimates the Blue Jays, slightly underestimates the Nationals, slightly overrates the Brewers and Rockies, and is on target with the Yankees.

Here’s my top 10 (in order): Angels…Blue Jays…Nationals…Brewers…Cardinals…Rangers…Reds…Red Sox…Rockies…Yankees.

Texas led the majors with 808 runs last season. I believe the Angels will top 900 this season…Milwaukee led the NL in runs and the majors in extra-base hits last season…Maybe I’m overrating Toronto, but I don’t think so…Boston will be very tough on left-handed pitchers…The Reds could erupt…The Yankees will miss Nick Swisher, Raul Ibanez and Russell Martin. Who knows how productive Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter (off ankle surgery) will be? Can they get 10 HRs from their catchers? My projection for two-thirds of the starting outfield (Brett Gardner and Ichiro Suzuki): 20 home runs – max.

SHORT SHOTS

When the 2013 National Lacrosse League season opens Saturday night with defending champion (sounds good) Rochester at the Washington Stealth, in Everett, WA., the Knighthawks will take the floor with three of the top seven players in the league, according to ILIndoor,com’s recent list of the NFLL’s Top-40 players: No. 4 Matt Vinc, No. 5 Dan Dawson and No. 7 Cody Jamieson. The rest of the top 10: No. 1 Garrett Billings (Totonto), No 2. John Grant Jr. (Colorado), No. 3 Rhys Duch (Washington), No.6 Curtis Dickson (Calgary), No. 8 Mark Steenhuis (Buffalo), No. 9 John Tavares (Buffalo), No. 10 Callum Crawford

Check out Texas A&M freshmen quarterback Johnny Manziel Friday night in the Cotton Bowl against Oklahoma. If he were a college basketball player and could leave for the 2013 draft, he might be the No. 1 overall pick in this April’s NFL draft.